Plexos Validation Report 2011
Today, 24th August 2011 the Regulatory Authorities publish their Report on the Validation of the PLEXOS model for 2011/12. This follows on from the public presentation on the matter held at the CER's office in June 2011.
RAs Validated SEM Plexos Forecast Model 2011-12
On 27th June the Regulatory Authorities (RAs) publish the public version of the Validated SEM Plexos Forecast model for 2011-12, along with the public version of their Backcast model. This follows on from a public presentation on the matter held at the CER’s office on 13th June - please see below.
This Plexos model has been validated by the Regulatory Authorities and will be used in forecasting the System Marginal Price (SMP) for Q4 2011 and all of 2012. Among various pieces of policy work, it has been used by the Regulatory Authorities in determining the quantity and price of Directed Contracts (DCs) for 2011/’12 - please see the following link:
Please direct any queries to Kevin Hagan khagan@cer.ie or James Curtin jcurtin@cer.ie
Note: The databases used for forecast modelling include the Plexos XML database with the validated generator technical data and model settings. For those without access to Plexos, an MS Excel spreadsheet is also published, containing the same technical data. Interested parties should note that variable operating and maintenance costs and fuel costs are not included. Parties should add estimates of their own as they see fit. The zipped files also contain comma separated value (CSV) wind generation files, an all-island demand file, an RoI embedded generation file, a TLAF file, as well as a parameters XML file. Also published is an MS Excel spreadsheet showing how fuel price input data in a Plexos format can be derived from the indices which the Regulatory Authorities will be using in the pricing of Directed Contracts.
The backcast database and associated files used to benchmark the SEM Plexos model to actual market outcomes are also published. It should be noted that GB fuel prices for the backcast period are not included and interested parties should add their own estimates of same as they see fit. These are needed to model flows across the Moyle Interconnector.
The version of Plexos used for this validation is 6.201 R22 and together with the Xpress MP solver.
Plexos Validation Workshop - Presentation Slides
The Regulatory Authorities (RAs) validated the simulation model, Plexos, and data inputs for the fifth tariff year of the SEM, beginning on 1st October 2011.
On 13th June the RAs held a public presentation for participants at CER offices in Tallaght, Dublin.
Comments or queries should be sent to Kevin Hagan khagan@cer.ie or James Curtin jcurtin@cer.ie
The RAs publish today (1st June 2011) a paper on the SEM contracting process for the next tariff year. This paper provides information on:
- The Plexos Validation Workshop, which will be held in the CER Office at 15:00 on Monday 13th June. Should you wish to attend please contact Kevin Hagan at the CER, at khagan@cer.ie;
- The detailed DC timelines, including the dates for the DC Subscription Windows; and,
- The PSO-related CfDs, including information on the offerings and type of product, following earlier consultation.
Documents
- SEM-11-072 Plexos Validation Report.pdf
- SEM-11-052 2011-12 Validated SEM Generator Data Parameters PUBLIC v1
- SEM-11-042 Plexos Validation Workshop Slides
- SEM-11-027 Contracting Process 2011-2012
- SEM-11-034 Directed Contract - Master Agreement
- SEM-11-035 Directed Contract - Master Agreement (redline)
- SEM-11-028 Airtricity Response to SEM-11-027
- SEM-11-029 BG Energy Response to SEM-11-027
- SEM-11-030 Endesa response to SEM-11-027
- SEM-11-031 ESB response to SEM-11-027
- SEM-11-032 ESB Electric Ireland response to SEM-11-027
- SEM-11-033 NIE response to SEM-11-027